Key findings
Overall, the number of illegal border-crossings by non-regional[1] migrants at the green borders decreased by 28 % compared with Q3 2018.
Pressure exerted by Iranians dropped after Serbia reinstated visa-requirements for them in October. They projected pressure north from Serbia towards Hungary and Croatia (via Bosnia and Herzegovina) and south towards Greece (via North Macedonia).
Indian nationals increasingly used the same modus operandi and movement directions as Iranians.
The Serbia-centred route remained attractive; migrants continued trying to reach Serbia via North Macedonia and increasingly also via Bulgaria.
From Serbia, migrants exerted higher pressure towards Hungary and Croatia (at and between BCPs); a slight decrease in detections was observed towards Bosnia and Herzegovina. Harsh winter conditions and increased border-controls / readmissions along the Bosnia and Herzegovina-Croatia-Slovenia corridor likely contributed to these developments.
The migratory pressure along the route stemming from the Greek-Albanian border section slightly decreased; reinforcements of the Montenegrin-Albanian border continue to hinder movements in that direction;
Migrants travelling both via the Serbia-centred route and along the route stemming from the Greek-Albanian border continued to project pressure further north.
Serbia joins Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina in reporting large numbers of illegal stayers on the territory; difficulties migrants encounter in leaving these countries coupled with winter weather can explain the detections.
The irregular flow of citizens of Western Balkan countries increased but remained largely contained at the southern common borders with Greece.
[1] Migrants who are not nationals of Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo*, North Macedonia, Montenegro or Serbia