This first annual risk analysis (WB-ARA) has been developed jointly in accordance with the Frontex May 2009 proposal to establish a permanent Western Balkan Risk Analysis Network (WB-RAN) between the Risk Analysis Units of the competent border-control authorities of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Frontex Risk Analysis Unit (RAU).
Given the current scope of regular information exchange in the context of WB-RAN and Frontex Risk Analysis Network (FRAN), the WB-ARA focuses mainly on the threat of irregular migration. The public version of the first annual risk analysis is structured around the following main elements: (1) a description of the situation through a set of indicators on irregular migration, (2) a short analysis of the three distinctive irregular migration flows, impacting both the area of Western Balkans and Member States, and (3) forecasts. The restricted version of the analysis describes also factors likely to influence irregular migration in the area of Western Balkans and the EU. It concludes with recommendations aimed at addressing identified vulnerabilities and strengthening border management and border security.